Вплив зміни клімату на шкідливість комах-фітофагів пшениці озимої у Лісостепу України

Abstract

Climate change impact on environmental performance constancy types of complex malware herbivores winter wheat under steppes of Ukraine: decreased frequency of display on crops such pests as opomiza, Hesse fly, wheat fly, bug-ridden. In the past 10 years, most notably the loss of crops from harmful insects winter wheat registered in Poltava and Kharkiv regions, but they did not exceed the threshold limit indicator of economic harm. In other areas the forest-steppe crop losses from pests were insignificant. Given the variability of phytosanitary condition of crops winter wheat depending on the weather season vegetation feasibility chemical protection from pests culture should be determined only by the results of entomological monitoring. Analyzed and calculated data base on the spread of pests and in the steppe zone described in the annual review of the State Veterinary and Phytosanitary Service of Ukraine, Ukraine Hydrometeocentre database. The potential harmful insects analyzed in terms of average economic index (IE). For calculations used Ie relation to the average number of pest indicator of its economic threshold of harmfulness. The total damage from insects (integrated hazard) was determined by calculating the integral index harm (Iein) - the amount of economic indices of each type of correction factor that reflects the cultural features of response to damage various types of pests. Multiply integral index of 3% (minimum loss threshold for crops of pests) can calculate the potential loss of crops. The average annual temperature and average annual rainfall is the main parameters for the study of climate change. According to research this option, the current climate is characterized by asymmetric Ukraine on the territory of warming, pronounced in winter and summer months. Over the last century the average annual temperature in Ukraine has increased by more than 0,9 0 С. Results of the analysis indicate that the increase in temperature in the cold period averages 1,35 0 С in warm - 1,0 0 С. Since 1989, the average annual temperature has increased by almost 1 0 C. It is known that major populations of insect pests cyclical fluctuations inherent strength in which in some years it can grow to 10 times irrespective of the economic status of rural economic production. This indicates that the long-term fluctuations in state populations, primarily due to internal mechanisms population, the effect of which can be enhanced or diminished by external factors, such as climate change. Our analysis of the results of years of phyto sanitary monitoring showed that by 2006, despite the stabilization of volumes of measures to protect plants and population rates of cereal crops on flies against the backdrop of fluctuations tended to increase. But after wintering extreme conditions in 2003-2004 tends to progressively reduce their numbers, which may be due to the earlier timing of sowing winter crops in terms of climate change. The population of each species of pests on crops of winter characterized by a certain density. Compare different populations might harm by rationing their density to that of economic harm threshold (EPSH). As a result of the valuation are average economic index, which is proportional to the potential loss of yield: the higher the index - the more harm. According to our data shows that in contrast scientifically substantiated many predictions, against further warming average of estimated crop loss of winter wheat in the steppes of Ukraine in the last 10 years reliably decreased, due to the decrease in the number and harmfulness of most types of major insect herbivores. The most notable changes in state populations complex cereal flies. In terms of forest-steppe zone in the past 10 years, most notably the loss of crops from harmful insects winter wheat in the Poltava and Kharkiv regions, but there are limits on rate EPSH. In other areas the forest-steppe crop losses from pests were insignificant. Under these conditions, given the variability of phytosanitary condition of crops winter wheat depending on the weather season vegetation feasibility chemical crop protection advisable to define only the results of entomological monitoring.