РЕГІОНАЛЬНИЙ РОЗВИТОК УКРАЇНИ В КОНТЕКСТІ КОНЦЕПЦІЇ СТАЛОГО РОЗВИТКУ: МОДЕЛІ НА ПАНЕЛЬНИХ ДАНИХ

Abstract

The problem of ensuring complex and balanced functioning of regions is relevant for different countries of the world, for Ukraine after victory in the war it will also appear with new nuances, because the gap between regions will increase many times. The need for sustainable development of Ukraine's regions is due to the war, the global threat of environmental degradation, the unstable situation in the world economy, the country's low socio-economic indicators and weak innovative activity. The purpose of the investigation is the panel modeling of the gross regional product (GRP) in the cross-section of the regions of Ukraine, depending on the amount of expenditures, population savings and the number of the population (social component), the amount of capital investments (economic component), as well as the level of environmental pollution (ecological component) based on regional data for 2004–2020 years (collected from State Statistic Service of Ukraine). The investigation singled out some of the main and available (from the point of view of data availability) indicators of sustainable development of Ukrainian regions and analyzed their interaction at the regional level with the panel modeling method. Also, thanks to panel modeling, the influence of neighboring regions on indicators of sustainable development of the studied region was investigated. The influence of the characteristics of each region is expressed through fixed individual effects obtained in the process of panel modeling. A prerequisite for the model construction and forecasting with it is an investigation of the socio-economic state and sustainable development of the regions of Ukraine, collecting the necessary data for creating a model. In panel modeling of the regions of Ukraine, four models are implemented on panel data, each of which can be applied at different levels of research. A choice was made in favor of a panel model with fixed effects according to the Hausman test. All of the constructed models are adequate, suitable for application at the level of regions of Ukraine and forecasting indicators for the following periods. The expediency of developing sustainable development policies in the territorial section is substantiated.