РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ОСНОВНЫХ ПОКАЗАТЕЛЕЙ ИННОВАЦИОННОГО РАЗВИТИЯ РЕГИОНАЛЬНОЙ ЭКОСИСТЕМЫ ВОРОНЕЖСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ

Abstract

The scientific works of foreign authors dealing with the formation and problems of the functioning of regional innovation ecosystems are considered. It was revealed that, despite the numerous results of scientific research in the development of regional innovation ecosystems existing in the world, a complete and detailed set of necessary conditions for ensuring the high development and success of the regional innovation ecosystem has not yet been developed. A system of two groups of indicators is proposed, including indicators of the development and success of the innovation ecosystem, with the help of which it is possible to assess the innovative development of the regional ecosystem of the Voronezh region. A model of innovative development of the regional ecosystem of the Voronezh region was developed on the basis of a combination of the method "structural model of innovative development" and the method of "black box", characterizing the success of the innovative development of the ecosystem of the studied region. The proposed methodology is described, which makes it possible to assess the innovative development of the regional ecosystem of the Voronezh region. A forecasting technique based on simple dynamic analysis, autoregressive method, and Cramer's method is presented. Regression equations are obtained for all the studied indicators. The values of the studied indicators of the innovative development of the regional ecosystem of the Voronezh region were calculated for the period from 2020 to 2023. An area diagram was constructed, which made it possible to identify both a positive growth of some indicators and a negative dynamics of changes in the indicators of innovative development of the regional ecosystem. One of the main problems hindering the development of the regional ecosystem of the Voronezh region, which is to reduce the number of young scientists, has been identified. The analysis of the reasons contributing to the occurrence of this problem is carried out. A list of effective measures to promote the growth of the number of young scientists is proposed.