Математическое моделирование одновременной занятости пожарных автомобилей при обслуживании вызовов в городе

Abstract

Purpose. The article deals with the analysis of fire and rescue unit activities and the simulation of the process of simultaneous engagement of operational departments on main fire trucks that provide reliable urban fire protection. As far as is known, mathematical simulation is at the heart of forecasting the operational situation in the city and, consequently, the activities of its fire and rescue units. Probabilistic-statistical methods make it possible to calculate the amount of equipment needed for emergency responses, and also to establish the law of distributing the number of responses within 24 hours, the probability of simultaneous engagement of fire trucks and the most probable number of refusals to respond to emergencies. Optimization of the listed indicators contributes to the increase in the efficiency of fire and rescue units. Methods. To achieve the goals of the study mentioned above, we have carried out simulation of the process of simultaneous engagement of operational departments on main fire trucks by means of the methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics. This article presents a mathematical model for the simultaneous engagement of the main fire trucks during emergency responses on the example of Donetsk City. To justify the number of fire trucks needed for the city to respond to emergencies timely and efficiently, it is convenient to use an approach based on summation of a random number of random variables. Findings. We have carried out a detailed analysis of the current operational situation in one of the cities of the region with the highest level of fire and rescue unit engagement. The number of cases requiring the involvement of additional departments has been established, and the total duration of engagement of these departments to respond to emergences in the city within a year has been calculated. Research application field. The results obtained will make it possible in the future to develop recommendations for the reorganization and improvement of fire protection of cities under study. Conclusions. In the future, using the method presented in the article allows substantiating the number of main fire trucks, water tankers and turntable ladders in other big cities of the region, and for the long term as well. To do this, it is necessary to set the prognostic values of the parameters of the operational situation of each city under study.