Abstract

The creation of material resources reserves for the elimination of consequences of natural disasters and technogenic accidents (emergency situations — ES) is one of the main tasks ofUnitedStatesystem of prevention and response to emergency situations. A sufficient amount of material resources, their rational placement, proper storage and quality service ensures the ability quickly to liquidate the immediate danger to human life and health, the organization of paramount life support for the population in the disaster area. Aims and purposes. There is an actual problem of preliminary assessment, accounting and justification of the spare parts reserve for work special technical means (STM) of the firefighting and rescue service in the course of emergency response, based on the principle of the necessary sufficiency and the maximum possible use of the available forces and means. Methods. For the planning the required amount of spare parts for STM, taking into account their cost, as well as for substantiating the decision on the optimal number of repair teams capable of ensuring timely replacement of failed units in an ES or its consequences, the methods of queuing theory and queuing systems are applicable. Results and discussion . The article proposes a method of calculating the optimal reserve of spare parts to ensure the normal operation of STM with economic justification, taking into account the material costs of their acquisition and maintenance of repair teams. There are presented the calculations that allow in practice to take into account the risks associated with insufficient reserve of spare parts and forced downtime of STM due to the inability to quickly troubleshoot during ES response and rescue operations. Practical recommendations for determination of economically expedient quantity of spare parts and number of the operators making repair of special equipment taking into account material costs and indicators of reliability are developed. Conclusions. The problems of the article correspond to the modern directions of scientific support of operational activities of Emercom of Russia and due to the presence of a wide range of tasks related to the creation, storage, use and replenishment of reserves of material resources during the liquidation of consequences of natural disasters and technogenic accidents.

Highlights

  • The creation of material resources reserves for the elimination of consequences of natural disasters and technogenic accidents is one of the main tasks of United State system of prevention and response to emergency situations

  • There is an actual problem of preliminary assessment, accounting and justification of the spare parts reserve for work special technical means (STM) of the firefighting and rescue service in the course of emergency response, based on the principle of the necessary sufficiency and the maximum possible use of the available forces and means

  • The article proposes a method of calculating the optimal reserve of spare parts to ensure the normal operation of STM with economic justification, taking into account the material costs of their acquisition and maintenance of repair teams

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Summary

Ìåòîäû èññëåäîâàíèÿ

Äëÿ ðåøåíèÿ ñôîðìóëèðîâàííîé çàäà÷è âîñïîëüçóåìñÿ ðÿäîì èçâåñòíûõ ôîðìóë [22, 23].  ðàññìàòðèâàåìûõ óñëîâèÿõ âîçìîæíû ñëåäóþùèå ñîñòîÿíèÿ ÑÌÎ ñ îòêàçàìè: S0 — âñå çàïàñíûå àãðåãàòû èñïðàâíû è âñå ìàøèíû ðàáîòàþò; Sk — k çàïàñíûõ àãðåãàòîâ (1 £ k £ n) íåèñïðàâíû è ëèáî ðåìîíòèðóþòñÿ âñå, ëèáî ÷àñòü ðåìîíòèðóåòñÿ, à ÷àñòü îæèäàåò ðåìîíòà; Sn+s — n çàïàñíûõ àãðåãàòîâ íåèñïðàâíû è s ìàøèí íå ðàáîòàþò (1 £ s £ m). Ïîëó÷èì äëÿ ñòàöèîíàðíîãî ðåæèìà ñëåäóþùèå ðåøåíèÿ: 1) âåðîÿòíîñòü òîãî, ÷òî âñå àãðåãàòû èñïðàâíû è âñå ìàøèíû ðàáîòàþò:. 2) âåðîÿòíîñòü òîãî, ÷òî âûøëè èç ñòðîÿ k àãðåãàòîâ (èëè s ìàøèí, 1 £ s £ m): Pk. ïðè c < k < n + 1, n + 1 £ k £ m + n; 3) ñðåäíåå ÷èñëî íåèñïðàâíûõ ìàøèí, îæèäàþùèõ ðåìîíòà:. Íàéäåì ïî ôîðìóëå (5) ñðåäíåå ÷èñëî ìàøèí, ïðîñòàèâàþùèõ èç-çà âûõîäà èç ñòðîÿ àãðåãàòîâ: N0 = 1P3 + 2P4 + 3P5 + 4P6 » 0,097. Òîãäà âåðîÿòíîñòü âûõîäà êàæäîé åäèíèöû ÑÒ èç ñòðîÿ èç-çà íåèñïðàâíîñòè àãðåãàòà ìîæíî îïðåäåëèòü ïî ôîðìóëå Ýðëàíãà, ãäå a0 = l0 t îáñ = 0,01 · 10 = 0,1. Îòñþäà ñðåäíåå ÷èñëî ìàøèí, ïðîñòàèâàþùèõ èç-çà âûõîäà èç ñòðîÿ àãðåãàòîâ, ñîñòàâèò: N0 = 4Pîòê = 0,364. Ó÷èòûâàÿ ñòîèìîñòü çàïàñíûõ ÷àñòåé, çàòðàòû íà ñîäåðæàíèå ðåìîíòíûõ áðèãàä, äîõîä îò ïîâûøåíèÿ íàäåæíîñòè, ìîæíî îïðåäåëèòü, êàêîé èç ýòèõ ñïîñîáîâ öåëåñîîáðàçåí ñ ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé òî÷êè çðåíèÿ

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