ЗОВНІШНІЙ ДЕРЖАВНИЙ БОРГ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ВІЙНИ

Abstract

The article is devoted to the assessment and analysis of the dynamics of external public debt and key indicators of external debt security of Ukraine for 2009 – July 2023. During the war, Ukraine is at a critical juncture where it must balance the imperative of post-conflict reconstruction with the need to manage external debt to ensure economic sustainability. The multifaceted nature of this challenge requires an integrated approach that encompasses policy coordination, diplomatic engagement, and in-depth economic analysis. The key emphasis in this study is on the analysis of the external public debt of Ukraine, in the context of the challenges caused by the war, highlighting the relationship between economic strategies and the needs of post-war reconstruction. The analysis of key indicators of external debt security proved a critical level of external debt burden. Based on the constructed Laffer curve, the threshold value of the ratio of external public debt to GDP is determined. The article is devoted to the study of theoretical and practical aspects of the assessment and analysis of external public debt and key indicators of Ukraine's external debt security, for the development of an effective external public debt management system and the transformation of public borrowing into a tool for post-war and post-war recovery of the country. The following scientific methods were used to achieve the goals of the scientific research: analysis and generalization – to study the current state of external debt security in Ukraine; comparison and compilation - for the analysis of the system of external debt security indicators; statistical analysis – to study the dynamics of debt security indicators and calculate an integral index based on them. Based on the analyzed dynamics of the external public debt, a conclusion was made about the "critical" debt load with peak values in 2014 (military conflict in certain territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions), in 2020–2021 (overcoming the negative consequences of the global Covid-19 pandemic) and in 2022–2023 (military aggression of Russia from the beginning of 2022). To determine the threshold value of the indicator of the ratio of public debt to GDP, the construction of the Laffer debt curve is proposed. On the basis of retrospective analysis and modern challenges, key possible ways of improving approaches to the management of Ukraine's external public debt in the conditions of martial law are determined.