Оценка моментов прибытия городского общественного транспорта на остановочные пункты

Abstract

The problem of determining the arrival moments arrival of vehicles (V) at stopping points (SP) based on navigation data on the position and speed of movement has been considered. The precise definition of these points is key to obtaining an up-to-date matrix of interstop correspondence, which is necessary for planning the development of urban transport infrastructure. The development of algorithms for determining the time of arrival of T at the SP in real time has been analyzed. The authors have described the main drawback of the presented algorithms during failures of navigation systems. A method has been developed for estimating the arrival moments of T at the SP based on historical navigation data and up-to-date data on the position and speed of the vehicle both before and after arrival. The method takes into account possible failures in data transmission: it leads to the fact that there may be several SP between two known sequential positions of T. A rigorous theoretical and probabilistic justification of the developed method has been given and its advantages and limitations have been considered. In particular, the issue of the specifics of its validation and calibration has been discussed in detail. The results of the work can be useful for the management and planning of the development of the transport system.