ОСОБЛИВОСТІ ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ ЧИСТОГО ДОХОДУ ВІД РЕАЛІЗАЦІЇ ПРОДУКЦІЇ (ТОВАРІВ, РОБІТ ТА ПОСЛУГ) В ДІЯЛЬНОСТІ ВИРОБНИЧИХ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ

Abstract

In this article are considered the basic theoretical and methodological aspects of forecasting, the approaches of foreign and national scientists to the concept of «forecasting», as well as substantiated the necessity of forecasting in manufacturing companies' activities. It has been proposed a number of methods for forecasting the net income from the sale of products (goods, works and services) and has considered the features and conditions of their use. It has been summarized and substantiated the factors which have a direct impact on the net income from the sale of products, works and services of the company. These include the volume of intangible assets, the volume of fixed assets, the volume of current assets, the volume of net worth, the volume of own current capital, the annual inflation rate, and the exchange rate. There was formed the information-digital database (factor and result indicators) for the period from 2012 to 2022 on the basis of the materials of the Private Joint Stock Company «Food company "Podillya». By using the Microsoft Excel software product and specifically one of its «Data Analysis» services, the linear multi-factor model has been calculated. There are presented the results of correlation and regression analysis of the received statistical data for construction of economical and mathematical model and established density and quality of correlation interrelations between the selected factor quantities influencing the level of net income from sale of products (goods, works and services). The created forecast model made it possible to estimate internal and external factors which have an impact on the dynamics of net income from sales of products (goods, works and services). A forecast of the studied indicator in 2022 has been made by calculating the average growth coefficients of the factor indicators. The calculated correlation-regression model can be applied as a basis for the creation of management measures to implement an effective company development strategy in the future and to improve management decision-making approaches based on the results of economicmathematical modelling.