Результаты и перспективы использования гидродинамической модели распространения паводочных волн в бассейне реки Амур

Abstract

A 2013 disastrous inundation occurred on the Amur River indicated the necessity of reaching new solutions for floods prevention and their negative consequences minimization. One of the possible ways is development of a method for setting the discharge hydrograph of the Bureya, Nizhne-Bureya and Zeya reservoirs, nonsynchronous with the forecasted hydrograph of the flood wave passage for flood-risky ranges of the Middle and Lower Amur on the basis of the flood wave transformation calculations. Results of the digital experiments on simulating the Amur runoff transformation with a hydrodynamic model developed by RosNIIVKh Far Eastern Branch on the basis of DHI-MIKE11 for the Middle and Lower Amur for information/analytical support of the Amur BWA activities on determination of the high-water passage regime for the reservoirs. As a result of the hydrodynamic model verification over the 2016–2017 period as a whole we obtained satisfactory estimations of the simulation quality criteria. On the basis of the simulation results analysis requirements to the boundary conditions have been formulated in addition to the determination of a range of practical tasks to be solved to adopt successfully the hydrodynamic simulation methods to the operative practice of the flood regulation in the Amur River basin including provision of the beds’ and floodplains’ morphometric and hydraulic characteristics relevance; the use of the runoff formation modern forecast hydrological models calculation data; and automation of the scenario calculations on the basis of integration with the Far Eastern Department of Hydro/meteorological Service state hydrological monitoring information system.