Проблемы и развитие когнитивных методов в стратегическом управлении

Abstract

Managing an educational organization as a complex system in the modern dynamic world is a non-trivial task, given the fierce competition in the educational space, the pressure of economic factors, high requirements for student training and end-to-end digitalization. This, in turn, predetermines the need to use new models and approaches to the development and justification of management decisions in a strategic perspective. One of these approaches is cognitive modeling, which allows us to establish a scenario for the development of events under a set of interrelated factors corresponding to the current situation. Cognitive modeling is an effective ap-proach to studying the development of a situation based on the construction of a graph model. It makes it pos-sible to study and predict the state of a certain object; its constituent elements are: self-development, modeling of external influences and purposeful development of the situation (controlled development). The cognitive model has the advantages of a simulation model, but is easier to develop. The purpose of the article is to con-sider the problems and opportunities for the development of cognitive methods in the strategic management of an educational organization. The study analyzed the possibilities of using cognitive methods in the process of forming a set of scenarios to model trends in the development of a problem situation based on selected control factors. The stages of cognitive modeling in the strategic management of an educational organization are also outlined. Particular attention is paid to impulse modeling of potential scenarios in which an educational organi-zation may find itself under the influence of certain environmental disturbances. In addition, requirements for the cognitive model are formulated, the fulfillment of which will improve its accuracy and efficiency in the pro-cess of making strategic management decisions for an educational organization.