Моделирование взаимодействия регионов России и Республики Беларусь в целях прогнозирования дополнительных транспортных потоков

Abstract

The article proposes a methodological approach using the spatial econometrics tool for development of transport and economic forecasting systems and reflection of major structural political decisions in its results on the example of the influence of economic integration of Russia and Belarus on transport flows in the intersectoral interterritorial systems of the Union State. To calculate the studied indicators, data from the official statistical websites of Russia and Belarus were used. The analysis of the spatial distribution of output in the processing sector of the regions of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus is carried out to assess the possibility of interaction between these regions in this sector of the economy. When modeling, the Republic of Belarus is considered as a separate region within the framework of the Union State. Calculations of the global and local Moran indices were made and possible spatial autocorrelations were determined both between the subjects of the Russian Federation and between the regions of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. In the current study, a standard inverse distance weight matrix was used to assess the degree of interaction between regions. The problem is considered, first of all, from the transport side on the basis of the analysis of relations in heavy industry as the main cargo-forming sphere. The influence of economic and infrastructural factors on the indicator characterizing the degree of possible interaction between the regions of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus in the field of industry and transport is studied. The results of the work make a step towards the systematic application of spatial econometrics in methodology and technology of transport and economic forecasting and can be used in preparation of strategies, programs and schemes for placement and development of industries, taking into account the potential of a new level of integration of the economies of Russia and Belarus.