ІСТОРИЧНІ ТРЕНДИ ТА СУЧАСНІ ТЕНДЕНЦІЇ МІЖНАРОДНОГО РУХУ КАПІТАЛУ В УМОВАХ НЕВИЗНАЧЕНОСТІ

Abstract

The article defines the phenomenon of international capital movement, examines its trends and current state in the conditions of incomplete recovery from the pandemic and after the start of the war in Ukraine. The authors describe the reasons that encourage countries to export capital, describe its main characteristics and influencing factors. It was concluded that the most profitable way of financing is financing with the help of direct foreign investments. It is also stated that the international movement of capital is characterized by periodic volatility, various periodic trends and structural changes. The historical prerequisites of the current state of the international movement of capital are also investigated. In particular, the historical periods in the 20th century, when there were changes in the direction of capital movement on a global scale, are highlighted and the reasons for such changes are substantiated. It was found that immediately after the war, investments were made mainly in the countries of Western Europe, and starting from the mid-80s, these countries themselves became large exporters of capital. The article emphasizes the difference in capital flows of the second half of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st centuries, when information was added to the traditional factors of production and new types of highly mobile capital appeared, moving only at a higher rate of profit. It is also stated that the movement of capital today is affected by the transition of the economy of developed countries to the post-industrial stage of economic development, which leads to the restructuring of the international division of labor and the expansion of scientific and technical cooperation. The authors also assessed the trends towards the recovery of direct foreign investment in the world after the pandemic and the prospects of an economic recession as a result of the war in Ukraine. It is noted that in 2021 the investment sector has fully recovered after the pandemic (especially in developed countries), but it is expected to slow down due to military actions in Ukraine, because the first signs of a threatening recession are already visible, which will most likely accelerate the decline in investment.