Агроклиматические ресурсы зернопроизводящих регионов России в условиях изменения климата

Abstract

The article presents a study of the dynamics of the indicators of the yield of grain crops in Russia, taking into account the statistics of risk-extreme factors affecting the productivity of grain production. The review of scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists devoted to the issues of determining the main factors affecting the quality and productivity of grown grain products is given. The authors proposed to divide the natural factors affecting the productivity of grain production into two groups: static and predictable. The analysis of the dynamics of inter-annual indicators of productivity of grain production in Russia, as well as the main meteorological factors affecting it, is presented. The indicators of meteorological hazards for the period 2019-2020 in the territories of the federal districts of the Russian Federation were studied. It is shown how the presence and frequency of detected risk-extreme values of meteorological factors have recently confirmed the fact of climate change in general. This problem is serious for Russia. The authors put forward a concept about the possible redistribution of the geography of grain production in the world in accordance with climate change scenarios in the coming decades. The processes of redistribution of territories for the production of grain crops will also affect Russia. It is important to learn how to predict these processes for the Russian Federation, which has vast territories with different climatic conditions inherent in it. Identification of “sustainable” districts with the most adaptive conditions for growing crops in the face of climate change can reduce the level of risk when making decisions in conditions of uncertainty.