Preliminary evidence on the somatic marker hypothesis applied to investment choices.

Abstract

The somatic marker hypothesis is one of the more dominant physiological models of human decision-making and yet is seldom applied to decision-making in financial investment scenarios. This study provides preliminary evidence about the application of the somatic marker hypothesis in investment choices using heart rate and skin conductance response measures. Twenty undergraduate students were split equally into expert (defined by familiarity with investments) and novice (no familiarity) groups, because previous research has associated expertise with cognitive differences in decision making scenarios. Both groups completed the Balloon Analogue Risk Task and Behavioral Investment Allocation Strategy task-a computerized simulation of real trading scenarios- as assessments of investment decision-making in conditions of low versus high uncertainty, as defined by the Bayesian calculation (level of certainty is more than: (1 - (-300%))/(300% - (-300%)) = 66.67% (0.67). Results suggest that, although primary inducers (innate physiological responses) support and guide optimal decision-making in conditions of uncertainty, secondary inducers (physiological responses dependent on memory/experience) moderate this effect; that is, the stressful thoughts that accompany the task restrict optimal decision-making. This study contributes to the current knowledge on why emotions in finance can lead people to suboptimal decisions.