인구통계학적 지표를 활용한 지방의 소멸위험 예측모형 개발

Abstract

The domestic population continues to decline, and has experienced three population cliffs since 1980, and the total fertility rate is 0.84 as of 2020, and ultra-low fertility continues. In addition, the recent transfer of local populations to the metropolitan area has reached a serious level in which young people, who play a central role in local economic activities, are concentrated in the metropolitan area. Accordingly, various local extinction indexes are being developed to set the direction of appropriate policies for the region and efficiently measure the degree of local extinction risk in the region, but critics say that the local extinction index developed so far does not reflect social population movement. Therefore, in this study, a new local extinction prediction model, including social mobility that can supplement the limitations of previous studies, was established, focusing on demographic characteristics, which are the core of the existing local extinction index model, and the following conclusions were drawn. Basic local governments in the metropolitan area are on the decline in Seoul, but Gyeonggi-do and Incheon are stable due to the influx of young people. In the case of the metropolitan area, some basic local governments at risk of extinction appeared in Busan and Daegu, and in most of the provincial areas, the risk of extinction was found to be very serious. In Gangwon-do, the outflow of youth population was found to have a severe difference between basic local governments, and in Chungbuk, Chungnam, Jeonbuk, Jeonnam, Gyeongbuk, and Gyeongnam, the aging of the population had a more serious impact on the disappearance than the outflow of youth population.