МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКАЯ МОДЕЛЬ ИНФОРМАЦИОННОЙ ПОДДЕРЖКИ ОПЕРАТИВНЫХ ГРУПП ПОЖАРНО-СПАСАТЕЛЬНОГО ГАРНИЗОНА

Abstract

Support for management decision-making in emergencies (firefighting), in uncertain conditions of its occurrence and uncertainty of its development is necessary for the organization of optimal distribution of the forces and resources of operational units involved in firefighting, and the knowledge of the Manager. The process of our research is limited only to the case of fire. Taking into account the fact that the data in the fire-extinguishing card does not always coincide with the state of the object where the fire occurred and the unpredictability of the direction of fire propagation, the decision-maker in this situation will organize work to obtain reliable information. These features allow us to consider the object where the fire occurred as a complex system. In this case, the main difficulty of information and analytical support for operational groups, as a management entity, is that at the first stage, the decision-maker in the operational group, without having complete reliable information, organizes its clarification. With the correct organization of their work, the task force ensures maximum efficiency of using the units of the Ministry of emergencies of Russia, when solving their combat tasks. At the same time, it can collect information about an emergency when it receives a notification of its occurrence, as well as on the way of the operational units to the specified area. The issues that determine the development of documents in different periods of the operational situation are considered, and the actions of the decision-maker in the operational group during fire extinguishing are highlighted separately. In this mathematical model, in which the transition of the system from the state of “fire occurrence” to the state of “fire extinguished” is modeled, the properties of a continuous Markov process are used. The solution of Kolmogorov’s system of differential equations determines the probability that characterizes the competence of the decision-maker in the task force.