Использование водных ресурсов Беларуси и их дифференциация по основным водосборам

Abstract

Outputs of the studies of the Republic of Belarus water consumption with differentiation in respect of the main rivers’ catchments for different economy sectors with accounting for the water bodies’ transboundary location are presented in the article. An integrated analysis of the water consumption/water use dynamics in the republic of Belarus was based on the materials of water/economic statistics for the 1990-2015 period. System analysis of the accumulated information and comparative geographical method have enabled to synthesize the most significant key provisions of the water consumption spatial/temporal fluctuations. Total water consumption (domestic and economic), as well as account data on the waste water discharge have been considered as the principal indicator for revealing trends and forecasting of future water use. Forecast estimations have been carried out for the period up to 2030. In development of the forecast the alternative versions of developments have been considered with accounting of the variant of water consumption deviation from the linear trend frequency distribution function: positive (75 % probability), medium (75 …25 %), and negative (less than 25 %). The forecast estimation of water consumption for the Republic of Belarus has been obtained for the first time. The forecast has been carried out with application the algorithm developed by the authors for the purposes of this particular investigation and realized in the appropriate software.