Террористическая ситуация в Юго-Восточной Азии: от аль-Каиды* к ИГИЛ** и современному этапу

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The article examines the process of evolution of terrorism in the Muslim regions of Southeast Asia. Its activation is linked to the involvement of Southeast Asian radicals in international terrorist networks, which transforms the terrorist landscape in Southeast Asia, with a concomitant increase in violence and extremism. This meets the request of part of the Muslim community to create a regionwide Islamic caliphate governed by the Sharia law. The article analyzes the reasons for the transformation of Southeast Asia into one of the epicenters of international terrorism, which leads to counterterrorism response that has in turn spurred the adaptation of terrorist groups’ strategy and tactics. The case studies used to explore this transformation are the largest terrorist structures in the region, in particular "Jemaah Islamiyah" and "Jamaah Ansharut Daulah". At the present stage, a degree of fragmentation and autonomization of terrorist organizations can be traced. While this reduces the threat of major terrorist attacks, this probability cannot be excluded in view of the ongoing processes of radicalization and religious indoctrination of a part of the Muslim community that retains confidence in the use of violence as a means of creating an Islamic state in Southeast Asia. The factors contributing to the spread of this ideological narrative in a part of the Muslim community are considered, including the special role of the Internet and social links in its self-radicalization. The most vulnerable group is the youth. "Jemaah Islamiyah"’s decision to self-dissolve is a critical moment in the fight against terrorism in Southeast Asia. However, as the main socio-economic and political causes of radicalization of some Muslims are not addressed, the threat of terrorist attacks is assessed to remain at a fairly high level.