Алгоритм определения предельных показателей индивидуального пожарного риска для Вьетнама

Abstract

Introduction. Fire risk management is an important part of any country's fire safety. For fire risk management, the normative value of individual fire risk (IFR) is important. This indicator allows fire safety specialists to compare the actual (calculated) values of an individual fire risk with its standard value. In many countries of the world, the values of IFR are defined, but in Vietnam such a standard has not yet been established, which complicates management activities in the field of fire safety. To establish the value of IFR, the limiting indicators of this value are initially determined. Aims and Purposes. The purpose of this article is to define an upper and lower limit for individual fire risk. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to develop an algorithm and apply it to determine the limiting values of the IFR. Methods. Used methods of mathematical analysis and methods of mathematical statistics. Results and discussion. Based on the results of the study, an algorithm was obtained for determining the upper and lower limit levels of individual fire risk in Vietnam and their specific values. This is an important step in directly defining the value of the IFR for Vietnam. Creating the value of IFR is extremely necessary when making managerial decisions to ensure the fire safety of territories and objects economically in Vietnam. Conclusions. Based on the developed algorithm, it was found that the indicator of the upper limit level of individual fire risk for Vietnam is 3,7∙10-6 and the indicator of the lower limit level is 3,7∙10-8. This means that the death toll from the fires in Vietnam must be higher than 3,7 deaths per 100 million people. per year and below 3,7 victims. per 1 million people in year. The value of the normative individual fire risk in Vietnam should be within these limits. Keywords: individual fire risk, marginal risk level, null hypothesis, ALARP principle, regression analysis.