Abstract
The article is devoted to the construction of a multifactorial economic-mathematical model of the dependence of the results of the functioning of enterprises of activities related to real estate development on the main macroeconomic factors. The relevance of studying the influence of factors influencing the results of the functioning of enterprises operating on the real estate market is substantiated. The relevance of the practical application of economic-mathematical modeling tools, in particular in areas related to the functioning of the real estate market, is highlighted. It is proposed to use the tools of economic and mathematical modeling to formalize the influence of individual factors on the results of the functioning of enterprises actively working in the real estate market (construction enterprises and enterprises carrying out transactions with real estate). The dynamics of changes in the net profit (loss) of enterprises by types of economic activity "Construction" and "Operations with real estate" were analyzed. Based on the results of the correlation analysis, the factors included in the dependence model were determined. The expediency of building a dependence model on the basis of a smoothed series of initial data, constructed using a three-point moving average, has been proven, which allows to eliminate the influence of seasonality on the studied phenomena. A model of the dependence of the results of the functioning of enterprises of types of activities related to real estate development on changes in the number of certified contracts for the purchase and sale of housing, the index of construction products and the index of housing prices was built. The model was checked for adequacy and reliability using generally accepted criteria. The application of the built model will allow further forecasting at the macro level the general financial results of enterprises working in the field of construction and real estate operations. Such forecasting can provide guidelines for the further development of the real estate market, aimed at improving the efficiency of the functioning of builders and developers.
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