Цифровое моделирование противодействия контрафакту: возможности и перспективы

Abstract

Countering counterfeit products protects the health of consumers, improves the quality of life and the competitiveness of the national economy. The turnover of counterfeit products entails a decrease in customs and tax payments, the attractiveness of investments in production and sectors of the economy, interferes with the observance of quality standards, and the construction of an innovative technological economy. Digital techniques expand the possibilities of understanding the trends of the phenomenon under consideration, which is applicable when constructing planning documents. Mathematical modeling methods make it possible to construct appropriate forecasts. To build models, it is proposed to use the provisions of the theory of probability with an emphasis on ensuring the reliability of the results. The indicators of digital models built on the basis of statistical data will be stochastic in nature. This makes it possible to generate digital forecasts that are “calculated” and verified. The use of quantitative models developed by the exact sciences requires correct application when considering issues of social and legal phenomena in order to comply with methodological soundness. For this, the theoretical distribution laws developed by the theory of probability are used. Suggestions for the practical use of the proposed methods for solving counterfeit counterfeiting issues are presented. The main area of application of the proposed digital modeling approaches is the construction of normative forecasts for planning. The main parameters of such plans are quantified. This approach can be applied when drawing up interstate plans and development strategies.