Залежність виникнення поривів вітру від аномалій тиску та температури повітря на території Північно-Західного Причорнорномор’я

Abstract

In order to reduce the devastating consequences of extreme wind gusts, a significant amount of research is being carried out in the world to study the conditions for the occurrence of this phenomenon, the dynamics of its spatio-temporal distribution, and a possible potential change in the wind regime against the background of modern climate change. Nowadays, it appears that not much research has been carried out to determine the possible impact of climate change on future wind gusts on the territory of Ukraine and, in particular, in the Northern Black Sea region. Global warming scenarios are expected to change the severity and frequency of future wind gusts by the end of this century. Considering this, a study was made of the spatio-temporal features of the formation of wind gusts in the North-Western Black Sea region for the period 2005-2020, and the dependence of their occurrence on air temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies, which can be used to analyze possible changes of future wind regimes as a result of climate change. To analyze the occurrence of wind gusts in the North-Western Black Sea region, data from three stations located in different parts of the region were selected. The data of METAR telegrams on wind gusts at the Odessa-AMSC, Mykolaiv, Kherson stations and surface weather observations data for the period from January 2005 to December 2020 were used as source material in the work. For statistical analysis of daily air temperature and pressure anomalies, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis archive data for the same period were used. The obtained results show that in the territory of the North-Western Black Sea region over the past 15 years, wind gusts in the gradation of 13-15 (m.s-1) prevailed, and the speed of wind gusts in most cases rised with an increase of the daily temperature anomaly (from 0.0 to 5.0 °С) and a decrease of the daily pressure anomaly (from 0 to -7.0 hPa).