Фундаментальные факторы технико- экономической цикличности

Abstract

The paper examines the phenomenon of stages in technical and economic development in the context of the theory of technological paradigm. On the basis of a critical rethinking of the approaches of Dosi, Perez, Glazyev et al., the marxist tendency of the rate of profit to fall, as well as an empirical analysis of the US economy, the authors built an econometric model that makes it possible to determine the factors that affect both the change of technological structures themselves and their phases. The incentive that pushes capital to the path of investment in new technologies is the dynamics of the rate of return, which tends to decline and stagnate at this stage. After the new technology was mastered by national producers, and the concentration of capital created national leaders with sufficient competitiveness. foreign economic relations between countries are intensifying, which expresses competition for the development of new markets. The growing rate of return is pushing investors to capitalize on it in the form of further investment in industries where new technology can increase the return on capital. At the same time, this creates the prerequisites for overaccumulation, which is expressed in a gradual drop in the marginal profitability in production, which directs capital to the financial sector. The financialization of the economy and the formation of stock market bubbles are taking place. After their collapse, the economy enters the stage of a fall in the average rate of profit, which again starts the process of searching for a new revolutionary technology that can ensure an increase in labor productivity. The research results make it possible to more fully explain the reasons for the change in the phases of technological orders, as well as predict these processes.