우리나라 산림지부문 입목바이오매스 탄소저장량의 불확도 평가

Abstract

The Paris Agreement recommends its member parties to enhance transparency in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) inventory by sector. IPCC guidelines provide recommendations for reducing uncertainties of GHG emissions and removals for the accurate assessment. Thus, this study aimed to assess the uncertainties of estimated carbon stocks for living biomass in the forestry sector. Living biomass is an essential indicator for monitoring GHG removals in the LULUCF sector. This study made a comparative assessment of the uncertainty by applying error propagation methods (simple multiplication, addition and subtraction) and the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) suggested in the IPCC guidelines. The findings showed that the overall uncertainty for the simple multiplication in the error propagation was found to be as high as ±28.0% due to higher uncertainties of country-specific emission factors. In contrast, the overall uncertainty was as low as ±3.6% for the addition and subtraction considering the sensitiveness of activity data and emission factors as explanatory variables, while that for the MCS was at around ±6.0%. Despite the slightly higher uncertainty for MCS compared with addition and subtraction, it is reasonable to apply uncertainty assessment using MCS considering the international reliability and comparability. Additionally, since living biomass causes various error sources including measurement error and volume equations by tree species, there is a need for research to assessing different error sources for uncertainty.