동티모르의 아세안 가입 지연 원인 분석

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the process of Timor-Leste's accession to Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in light of its use of three-level games approach. Timor-Leste is located in Southeast Asia, but is the only country in the region that has not yet joined the regional association. Timor-Leste delegations have visited ASEAN member states on several missions to strengthen the capacity of diplomatic officials from this new nation, while also taking the opportunity to express their intention to join ASEAN. To date, however, there has been no formal commitment yet to join ASEAN. This has led some observers to ask why Timor-Leste appears to be dragging its heels on their membership application. This study presents a critical analysis Timor-Leste's potential ASEAN membership and ASEAN's position in relation to existing member with a particular focus on the factors informing its slow progress. We argue that Timor-Leste's primary aim in joining ASEAN is to secure the legitimacy of an independent state and to secure a bridgehead to the international community through the membership of regional cooperative institution. Recognizing that the pursuit of regional stability is prioritized by ASEAN member states in their considerations of Timor-Leste's potential membership, the ambiguity and delays in Timor-Leste's accession to ASEAN can be related to earlier debates that accompanied the membership applications of Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia during the phase of the ASEAN's expansion since the 1990 as well as to its complex relationship to Indonesia – the largest ASEAN member state -, under which Timor-Leste was previously incorporated. This study thus explains not only the possible foreign policy implications of Timor-Leste's flirtation with ASEAN membership, but also highlights variables will have a major impact on ASEAN integration in the future.