부산 경남지역의 지역내총생산 동조성에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study examined the synchronicity of economic activities between Busan and Gyeongnam (including Ulsan) using per capita regional gross domestic product data from Busan and Gyeongnam from 1985 to 2020. Synchronization of economic activities is a phenomenon in which major macroeconomic variables move similarly at the same time or over time, and can be analyzed through cointegration analysis and Granger causality analysis. First, we examined whether a long-term equilibrium relationship exists between the regional gross domestic product of Busan and Gyeongnam through a cointegration test considering structural changes. In addition, we examined the mutual predictive power between regional GDP growth rates through the Markov regime-switching model. As a result, a structural change occurred in the long-run stable relationship was found. In the case of the cointegration test method reflecting the structural change, it was found that there is a long-run stable relationship between GRDP of Busan and Gyeongnam. In the Markov phase-switching model, GRDP of the two regions had synchrony in the long run regardless of the economic phase, and there was synchronicity with high mutual predictive power between the rates of change in the GRDP of Busan and Gyeongnam. The synchronicity of economic activities in Busan and Gyeongnam is adequately explained by the method considering the structural change and the nonlinear model.