«Расширенная Туманганская инициатива»: тенденции и перспективы

Abstract

The article discusses the problems of the « Augmented Tumangan Initiative» (ATI) implementation in Northeast Asia from the position of the relative interests of the participating countries in the project, prospects for the formation of multilateral political dialogue, and also possible regional public goods that can be achieved both by an individual party and of the region as a whole. The article describes the role of transport communications in the development of the region, free economic zones created within the ATI, prospects for countries’ participation in the creation of a regional value chain. The authors have tried to apply a mathematical method of analysis, in particular Game Theory, to assess the strategic behavior of the RTI member countries in conditions of conflict of interests. The authors provide an analytical and predictive assessment of the multilateral relations development of the initiatives’ participants. The Augmented Tumangan Initiative, approved under the auspices of the United Nations Development Program based on The Tumannay River Area Development Program, is an intergovernmental mechanism for regional cooperation in Northeast Asia, in which four countries are currently participating: Russian Federation, People’s Republic of China, Mongolia and the Republic of Korea. The program bears the same name as the Tumangan River, which separates three border states: Russia, China and North Korea. Until 2009, North Korea was a part of the participants, but due to, as the North Korean side indicated, the lack of effectiveness of the project, it announced the termination of its participation. Japan initially did not join the ATI, since it considered the possible contribution of each of the countries that have different stages of economic development and, accordingly, different levels of financial potential will be unequal. It should also be noted that there are territorial disputes between the participants and the unstable situation on the Korean Peninsula. However, due to possible relative economic interests, each of the countries, including the DPRK and Japan, does not exclude the possibility of using the ATI site to obtain their own benefits