Сравнительный потенциал торговли стран Северо-Восточной Азии

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to assess the comparative trade potential of Northeast Asian countries based on the border effect estimation. In general, intraregional trade in North-East Asia (NEA) was less intensive than NEA trade with other countries. This indicates high trade barriers between NEA countries. It was determined that the reduction of trade barriers between China, Japan and the Republic of Korea can increase the total trade turnover of NEA. It was found that access to the Chinese market, as well as the inflow of Chinese direct investment in cooperation projects, can significantly increase the foreign trade of Russia and Mongolia. The estimates of the border effect for the DPRK indicated the close relations of its economy with the Chinese market, as well as North Korea’s foreign trade could significantly increase in the event of reduction high trade barriers with the Republic of Korea. The assessments indicated the existence of economic conditions for expanding trade in NEA, and China is a «connecting link» between the NEA countries. However, political conflicts between some NEA countries, as well as the political and economic influence of other countries, significantly complicate the implementation of the existing trade potential of the sub-global region