ПРЕВЕНТИВНЕ ОЦІНЮВАННЯ КОМПЛЕКСНОЇ ЗНАЧУЩОСТІ ХАРАКТЕРНИХ ПОМИЛОК АВІАДИСПЕЧЕРІВ

Abstract

It is substantiated that the main factor explaining the impact of "front-line" aviation operators on the interaction of ICAO flight safety concept components is their "attitude to dangerous activities or conditions". To this “attitude” is assigned a preference system based on indicators and characteristics of professional activity. Based on ICAO recommendations and statistics on accidents and serious incidents during the organization of air traffic, a spectrum of n = 21 characteristic errors of air traffic controllers was formed, which most fully and comprehensively illustrates their erroneous decisions. Focusing on the linguistic indicators of ICAO to determine the levels of frequency and danger of adverse events, it is reasonable to carry out their defuzzification by using weighted error significance factors to determine individual and group preference systems. The coefficients are determined at the fifth iteration of the application of the mathematical method of prioritization. m=37 of professional air traffic controllers were involved in the experiment. To summarize their opinions regarding the frequency and danger of errors, a multiplicative approach was implemented, in contrast to the additive approach, more accurate results are obtained. The group systems of preferences of the tested air traffic controllers were constructed in terms of the frequency and dangers of characteristic errors that do not coincide. Indistinguishability indicator was introduced. It is found that its value for the study of the frequency of errors in the group system of advantages is equal to the value R*LF= 1,23·10-2, and for the analysis of the risks of errors - three times worse and equalR*LD= 3,77·10-2. An integrative (holistic) indicator of the significance of each error summarizes its coefficients of significance for the frequency and hazard indicators and is multiplicative. Which made it possible to build the ultimate group benefits system. The degree of indistinction of the significance of errors in it is equalR*g = 0,91·10-2, which testifies to the effectiveness of the proposed approach to the implementation of the recommendations of ICAO on the consideration in the processes of safety management of the frequency of flights and from the top of adverse events. It is proposed to use the obtained results to create a methodology for analyzing the “event tree” in flight safety management systems.