확률분포 모수선도에 의한 미계측 지점의 확률강우량 산정

Abstract

The objective of this study is to produce a probability distribution parameter map for evaluation of probable rainfall quantile in ungauged site. The rainfall data used in this study are annual maximum rainfalls at 58 stations during the period of more than 30 years for 12 durations. The 16 probability distributions which have been widely used in hydrologic frequency analysis are applied to the basic data and to determine the representative appropriate distribution. The location, scale, and shape parameters of the representative appropriate distribution for each station and each duration are calculated using L-moments method. These parameters are contoured using spatial interpolation, based on the geostatistical method of Kriging to produce parameter maps that depict the spatial variation and magnitude of each parameter. The results of this study are as followings; (1) The GEV distribution is determined as the representative probability distribution in Korea. (2) The parameters for any location in Korea can be estimated using the parameter maps and the rainfall quantile is obtained from GEV distribution equation using parameter about the selected rainfall duration. (3) Comparative analysis of the results shows that the probable rainfall quantiles by the parameter maps are little different from those existing researches. (4) In the result by probability distribution parameter map, rainfall quantile is better easy to evaluate in ungaged site without restriction of return period.