Выявление макроэкономических аспектов, сказывающихся на масштабах неформальной занятости

Abstract

The relevance of the study is to determine the scale of informal employment, as well as to identify the factors affecting this segment of the economy. In the course of the study, a relationship was established between informal employment and the following indicators: unemployment, investment levels, small business development, and average wages. The relationship between the presented macroeconomic factors was revealed, both in the short term by means of correlation analysis and in the long term by tracking changes in the dynamics of informal employment and the presented macroeconomic factors for the period from 2010 to 2019. This study supports the theory of E. de Soto about the forced specifics of informal economic activity, in other words, when there is no employment opportunity (too difficult) in the official economy, citizens are forced to resort to the informal sector of the economy in order to replenish their well-being. In a situation where welfare increases, economic actors can transform and move to employment in the official economy. However, the data obtained in the short-term period did not find confirmation in comparison with the long-term, on the contrary, they showed the opposite picture, which indicates the heterogeneity of informal employment in Russia. Previously, citizens involved in informal labour relations were assessed exclusively as low-skilled, uneducated employees. Currently, informal employment is more assessed as a certain economic activity with its own specifics. Based on the results of the study, a set of measures was drawn up to help reduce the number of informally employed citizens, and to withdraw some of the informal economic entities into the official economy