Краткий обзор эволюции компьютерных симуляций в экономических исследованиях

Abstract

The article discusses the evolution of two approaches to using computer simulations in economic research. The first was created by the American mathematician Norbert Wiener, who used the theory of cybernetics as a method of scientific research and cognition. The second, which also began its journey in the period 1944–1955, is based on the writings of John von Neumann, then a consultant to Los Alamos National Laboratory, and his invention of cellular automata. The first section provides an overview of the Wiener path, which became the guiding reference point for the Forrester system dynamics and Orcutt microsimulations. The second section presents the Neumann path, which gave birth to such methods as Monte Carlo and agent-based modeling, which, as a result, through the efforts of G. Epstein and P. Axtel, was transformed into a conceptual approach of artificial life specifically designed for socio-economic experiments. Finally, the third section explores the potential for developing hybrid simulations by combining the methods of the two paths in concern.