Определение параметров агент-ориентированной модели резильентного управления промышленностью России

Abstract

The purpose of the work is to establish the parameters of an agent-based model of the industrial complex of the Russian Federation for resilient management of its functioning. To achieve this goal, a number of tasks were completed. A theoretical basis for the main provisions of the study is given. The author's definition of industry resilience is proposed. Analyzed crisis periods in the development of the Russian economy (1998, 2008, 2014-15, 2020, 2022) and the features of industrial development during these periods were clarified. The stages of crisis periods in the development of Russian industry over the past decades have been identified. The parameters of the industrial system that respond to shock fluctuations of crises and control indicators have been established. A spectral analysis was performed to assess the adequacy of the response of the phase vector parameters to shock fluctuations of crisis phenomena. Regression equations were constructed to identify the parameters of the model of resilient industrial management in Russia. The quality of the equations was assessed. The possibility of their use for estimating control system parameters and making forecasts is substantiated. The resulting statistical models can be used to build an agent-oriented model of the Russian industrial resilient management.