Спрос на рынке жилья и потребности россиян: эконометрический подход

Abstract

The article emphasizes the peculiarities of such goods as housing and the situation with the affordability of housing, which has developed in the modern Russian market, due to the outstripping growth rates of housing prices. The article considers regional peculiarities of emerging trends in federal districts in conditions of relatively low mortgage rates. Particular attention is paid to the scale and structure of mortgage lending in CFD, attention is paid to the increased role of investment decisions when purchasing housing in CFD by borrowers from other regions. Assessing the prospects of housing market development in the light of the demographic policy, emphasis is made on the growing discrepancy between the needs of the population for housing and the emerging demand, shifted to the purchase of more affordable small-size housing. This causes structural shifts in the supply of housing. The authors consider it possible to define this situation as “quasi-demand”, which does not solve the problem of improving housing conditions and, in fact, creates a pent-up demand, the aggravation of which is likely in the medium-term period of 7-8 years. The article is written based on official statistics with the use of econometric modeling and graphs.