Трансформация российской валютной политики на фоне обострения геополитической напряженности

Abstract

The subject of the study is the transformation of the Russian monetary policy against the background of the aggravation of geopolitical tensions. The relevance of the topic of the article is conditioned by the need to analyze and evaluate the results of the monetary policy pursued by the monetary authorities in the face of unprecedented sanctions pressure of unfriendly countries on the Russian economy in 2014-2022. The purpose of the work is to establish the degree of influence of geopolitical factors and the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia on the exchange rate of the Russian ruble. It is revealed that the key factors determining the exchange rate of the ruble during a special military operation are export-import flows and the geopolitical premium. By means of regression analysis, the dynamics of the geopolitical premium in 2014-2022 is determined. The effectiveness of anti-crisis measures in the domestic currency and stock markets is assessed. The relatively rapid transition of the regulator to a reduction in the key rate after its emergency increase in comparison with the financial crisis of 2014-2015 is emphasized. There is a global trend towards de-dollarization and fragmentation of the world monetary system, as well. changing power relations between global financial centers. It is concluded that in the context of the escalation of the geopolitical conflict, the transformation of the Russian monetary policy took place: the loss of control over a significant part of international reserves forced the monetary authorities to resort to non-market methods of supporting the national currency, which proved to be very successful.