ЕКОНОМІКО-МАТЕМАТИЧНЕ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ЕКСПОРТНОГО ПОТЕНЦІАЛУ ЗЕРНОВИХ В ОДЕСЬКІЙ ОБЛАСТІ

Abstract

At present, the development of agro-industrial complex is the important factor in the country’s economic growth and strengthening of its role in the international trade. Since 2014 there is the reorientation of foreign trade flows in Ukraine, including in the agricultural sector. The grain sector is the basis for the stability of the domestic food market. This sector provides with vitally-necessary products to the country population and forms tendency of the economy development. In the article, based on statistical data the dynamics of production and export of grain crops in Ukraine in 2015-2020 is revealed, and their importance in the agricultural sector is shown. The export potential of grain in Ukraine is almost half of the total production. Annual revenues from grain exports in Ukraine amount to about $ 10 billion. The volumes of gross grain harvest, revenues from their export, grain yield in Ukraine as a whole have a general trend of growth. Therefore, it is worth paying attention to the issue of effective regulation of the ratio of the production and exports of the grain sector of Ukraine. Particular attention is focused to the export potential of Odessa region in the grain sector, showing their share and role in ensuring food security, trends and forecasts for the next marketing year. It is established that the development of the agricultural sector requires the use of modern statistical and economic-mathematical methods and models for the analysis and forecasting of time series. The article uses some statistical, economic and mathematical methods (correlation-regression analysis, trend analysis) and models for analysis and forecasting of grain exports in Odessa region. The construction of the multifactor model for the export of cereals and legumes in the Odessa region focused on statistics from 2015 to 2020. Thanks to the correlation-regression analysis, significant factors have been identified, namely the yield and volume of stocks, which most significantly affect the volume of grain exports in the Odessa region. Factors that can be neglected have been identified. Their adequacy of the model was checked and the forecast was built.