ВИКОРИСТАННЯ НЕЧІТКОЇ ЛОГІКИ ДЛЯ ОЦІНКИ ЗДОРОВ’Я ЕКОНОМІКИ УКРАЇНИ

Abstract

An important component of public economic management is to achieve a balance between the various targets of public policy and the formation of a healthy economy. A healthy economy is the basis for stable economic growth and a buffer to minimize the negative impact of external risks. The purpose of the article is to assess the “health” of Ukraine’s economy in the dynamics and in comparison with European countries. The authors used two approaches to assessing the health of the economy, namely: the Maastricht criteria (including inflation, deficit, government debt, exchange rate and long-term interest rates) and the approach of K. Collins (based on inflation, unemployment and GDP per capita). The authors assessed the health of the economy of Ukraine and EU countries for the period 2003–2020 using the fuzzy logic method, which is implemented in the MATLAB application package. Both models indicate that the most threatening situation in Ukraine was in 2008 and 2014–2015. This is completely true, because it was then that the Ukrainian economy was experiencing periods of crisis. At the same time, the best indicators of the health of the Ukrainian economy were in 2003, 2005, 2011, 2018–2019. According to both approaches, the economy of Ukraine throughout the study period can be described as “sick”, although not catastrophic. This means that even minor deteriorations in public debt, budget deficits, and the national currency exchange rate can have significant negative consequences that will be very difficult for the economy to overcome. A comparative analysis with EU countries showed that Ukraine’s economy is in a worse state compared to European countries throughout the study period. The article systematizes the types of negative economic effects due to the coronavirus crisis, namely: loss of GDP; disability and treatment costs; disability losses due to illness lasting from 3 weeks or more; losses of the economy from quarantine restrictions. Given that Ukraine’s economy is in a state of “sickness”, economic losses in the event of a continuation of the coronavirus crisis could become catastrophic and provoke a sharp deterioration in the economy.