Abstract
The existing innovative approaches of both domestic and foreign scientists to intelligent forecasting, as well as forest fire management, are considered. The implementation of the application of the ANFIS neuro-fuzzy system for predicting forest fires in order to increase the reliability and reliability of the forecast data obtained is presented. The analysis of the feature space when considering forest fires is carried out, a correlation matrix is presented that characterizes the degree of influence of features on the predicted indicators. The structure of the neural network model with the corresponding linguistic variables and membership functions is constructed. The results of the ANFIS system training based on historical data in the Leningrad Region for the period from 2015 to 2023 are presented. The results obtained make it possible to increase the efficiency of operational forecasting of the dynamics of forest fires, to justify the adoption of management decisions on their elimination.
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Schedule a callMore From: Scientific and analytical journal «Vestnik Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia»
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