Анализ субсидирования тепловой энергии в Арктической зоне Республики Саха (Якутия)

Abstract

The purpose is to analyze the heat supply subsidizing dynamics in the Arctic zone of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia). To achieve the purpose, the methods of statistical, comparative and factor analysis of heat production cost based on statistical data and information from energy supply companies in Yakutia are used. The authors have collected and analyzed the information on heat generation, structure of the cost of fuel used for heat production including the cost of purchase from suppliers, delivery via mainline and intra-settlement transport as well as storage costs. The regions with the most complicated fuel delivery scheme are identified: they are Verkhoyansky, Ust-Yansky and Momsky uluses. The necessary average annual amounts of subsidies for all Arctic uluses are calculated considering the area and number of floors of the housing stock with central heating. The factor analysis of the structure of the produced heat energy cost is carried out. Having revealed the variation dynamics of heat tariff subsidized part, the forecast of changes of heat supply tariffs is made for the period up to 2023. The subsidizing amount is estimated. It is determined that the observed average annual increase in fuel supply transport costs by 13% leads to 6% growth in the cost of heat production in the Arctic zone of Yakutia. As a result, the expected annual growth rate of subsidies will be 4.4%, and by 2030, the amount of heat energy subsidies will increase by 1.5 times compared to 2018. If most of the factors affecting the growth of heat tariffs change the coverage of the subsidized part of population, as well as the amount itself, may increase. This is due to the low per capita income in the North and another indirect factor is the annual increase in the final cost of fuel.