Abstract
The study was conducted in Dong Nai Reserve, specially protected natural area (SPNA), Vietnam. It aims to analyze and forecast forest land cover in the Reserve. For these purposes were studied satellite images (Landsat 5, Landsat 7 and Landsat 8) taken in 2003, 2011 and 2019. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to identify vegetation quality. Forest land cover was divided into 5 categories using maximum likelihood classifier algorithm. In order to detect and evaluate forest land cover changes, supervised classification and image differencing method are applied. Then, Cellular Automata and Markov Chain model was employed for making forecast of forest land cover in this area. The results of the study indicate that forest land cover change is being transformed in Dong Nai Reserve. According to our estimation, from 2003 to 2019, the area covered by woody vegetation increased by 7.0 %. By 2035, the area of broad-leaved forests will increase by 1.6 %, due to a decrease in areas of meadows and shrubs. The dynamics of increasing forest land is explained by the measures taken by the Vietnamese government to expand the area of forests in SPNA.
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