Changes of forest land cover in Lithuania during the period 1950-2017: a comparative analysis

Abstract

Due to human activities Lithuanian historical land use and land cover (LULC) changed. Forest land cover was also changing. 200 years ago, forests occupied almost 40% of the entire Lithuania territory, in 1914 – only 20%, and in 1939 – only 17%. The historical changes in forest land cover were mainly related to deforestation. Today, the forest cover is increasing in Lithuania, but changes within different municipalities boundaries differ. The aim of this study was to compare geodata of forest land cover, within different municipalities of Lithuania boundaries, in the 1950s and 2017 for a better understanding of spatial patterns of occurred forest land cover changes. To evaluate forest land cover changes in Lithuania, two geodatabases, representing the forest cover in the 1950s and 2017, were used. Methods of descriptive statistical analysis, spatial autocorrelation, cluster and outlier analysis using ArcGIS and MS EXCEL software were used to process, evaluate and represent the data of this study. The results of this study revealed that forest land cover increased by 7.1% during the investigated period resulting in the forest land area proportion of 33.6% in 2017. Despite positive changes of Lithuania forest land cover, two municipalities met afforestation. Forest land covers most intensively, i. e. 17.1–31.1%, increased in the south-eastern part of Lithuania and west-central part of Lithuania. The most passive afforestation was detected in northern, central, and south-western parts of Lithuania, where forest land cover increased only from 1.2% to 4.9%.