Predicting Forest Land Cover Changesin Ba Be National Park of Vietnam

Abstract

The study is conducted in Ba Be National Park which is the specially protected natural area (SPNA) of Vietnam. The paper analyzes changes and makes prediction of forest land cover in National Park. For these purposes satellite images (Landsat-5 and Landsat-8) acquired for the year of 1992, 2003 and 2019 were used. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to identify vegetation quality. Forest land cover was classified by 5 categories using maximum likelihood classifier algorithm. In order to detect and evaluate forest land cover change, supervised classification and image differencing method are applied. Then, Cellular Automata and Markov Chain model is employed predict of forest land cover in this area. The results of the study indicate that forest land cover change is being transformed in Ba Be National Park. According to our estimate, from 1992 to 2019, the area covered by woody vegetation increased by 1.1%. By 2035, the area of broad-leaved forests will increase by 9.7%, due to a decrease in areas of meadows and shrubs. The increase in forest cover protected areas is explained by the measures taken by the Vietnamese government to expand the forest area in the country.