АНАЛІЗ ОСНОВНИХ НАПРЯМКІВ ВОЄННОЇ БЕЗПЕКИ,ШЛЯХІВ ЇЇ ОЦІНКИ ТА ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ

Abstract

This article is devoted to the analysis of the main directions of military security, ways of its assessment and forecasting. The military security of Ukraine is derived from the level of development of the economic, informational, actually military and scientific-technological base of the state, the system of political relations in society, the degree of democratic development of the state, and the system of international relations. The purpose of this study is the desire of the authors to systematically show all directions, their interrelationship and peculiarities of implementation in the conditions of military operations between Ukraine and Russia. The definition of the level of military security should be based on a system of indicators that comprehensively characterize the general situation in the region, the tension in the military-political relations of the parties, the ratio of the potential capabilities of the armed forces, the presence of interests in Ukraine, the implementation of which may require military force, as well as the confidence of the military the political leadership of neighboring states in the expediency of armed violence as a means of achieving political goals. The results of the analysis of events that characterized the manifestations of military security in wars and armed conflicts of the last decades in the political, military, economic, informational, religious, territorial and ethnic spheres are given. It is considered as a consistent selection of expertly significant intermediate states (ESPS) of the process of realization of national interests or the system of ensuring the national security of the state. For each selected ESPS, sets of main participants, forces, factors, etc. are formed, which, according to experts, will influence the deviation of the forecast scenario from the basic one in EZPS and a set of factors that describe or relate to the forecasted scenario are fixed, possible micro-scenarios are built and the degrees of their deviation from the basic scenario are evaluated using the technologies of multivariate analysis in - the method of analysis of hierarchies. A scale of relative importance is presented, and an analysis and assessment of the level of national security and its components is made. As a result of research, it is substantiated that an increase in the modified generalized indicator means an increase in the object's reliability (safety) indicator, and its decrease means a decrease in this indicator.