ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ МОЖЛИВОСТЕЙ СТРУКТУРОВАНИХ АНАЛІТИЧНИХ МЕТОДІВ У РОЗВІДУВАЛЬНОЇ ІНФОРМАЦІЙНОЇ РОБОТІ

Abstract

Structured analytical methods are an integral component for all analytical specialists who seek to introduce transparency, scientificity into their daily analytical work, provide justification for making intelligence decisions and avoid surprises. Good analysis and foresight means that we constantly need to question ourselves. These studies show us how to do this in a structured and systematic way. They are easy to use, practice-oriented and convince even skeptics of the need to use structured technologies. The structured analytical methods explored in the work stimulate the imagination, raise the level of demandingness, and are applied to solving complex intelligence problems, as well as other areas that require significant analysis. This is a new, expanded study and a must-have resource for daily use by any serious intelligence analyst. The work noted that despite the intensive study and criticism of intelligence information work, little attention was traditionally paid to the analysis of intelligence activities. Most assessments tend to focus on issues such as covert foreign operations and covert activities, perhaps because they align more easily with popular perceptions of the intelligence world, but analysis has perhaps never been a more important part of the profession or needed by intelligence officers. Compared to the bipolar dynamics of the Cold War, in this new world the threat of underdeveloped states, spreading dangers, regional crises, rising powers and dangerous non-state actors is looming. Of course, there are valuable secrets to be discovered by intelligence - things to know and discover. But this world is also rich with mysteries related to the future course of events and the intentions of key actors. Such things are unlikely to be illuminated by a single piece of classified intelligence; these are necessarily topics for analysis.