Прогнозирование инновационной активности компании на основе индикаторов инновационного потенциала персонала

Abstract

The article highlights the results of studying and forecasting the innovative potential of personnel, which, when a number of conditions are met, is embodied in innovative activity characterized by the rates of rationalization efforts. Russian Railways, JSC is one of the first companies to develop a regulatory framework arranging the innovative activities and relations arising in the course of development and use of rationalization proposals, as well as formalizing the innovative activities of personnel, whose activity served as a factual basis of the research. There have been emphasized the significant components of the employees’ innovation activity, the development of which is the prerogative of the company. The purposeful activity of Russian Railways, JSC in training the employees for inclusion in the process of generating proposals was noted. The dynamics of the innovative proposals and their authors is analyzed. The change in the obtained economic effect per one innovative proposal has been investigated. Modeling the dependence of the used rationalization proposals on the number of authors who submitted proposals has been carried out. The assessment of the accuracy and adequacy of the constructed regression equation is given, the absence of cointegration of the considered time series is shown, which gives grounds to use the constructed model of dependence of indicators of the innovative potential of the company’s personnel for making forecasts. Point and interval forecasting of the factor attribute of the predictive model of the number of authors who submitted rationalization proposals was performed using the linear trend equation, the quality level of which as a whole, as well as the statistical significance of the equation parameters were assessed using Fisherʼs F-test and Studentʼs t-test. There has been proved the significance of forecasting the indicators of rationalization activity as indicators of the innovative activity of personnel in making managerial decisions by the company in relation to its intensification is shown; substantiated the need to take into account the structural and infrastructural components in the construction of predictive models.