Математические основы стохастического моделирования динамики эксплуатационных рисков в социотехнических системах

Abstract

Introduction. A significant number of accidents and emergencies are initiated by incidents caused by failures of technical facilities and various equipment for reasons related to operational factors. Therefore, the problem of creating new technologies that provide regulation within acceptable limits of the level of risk of dangerous incidents is becoming urgent. Such technologies can be created on the basis of organizing monitoring of real conditions and other operating factors, as well as their regulation through the introduction of appropriate technical and economic mechanisms. The purpose of the study is to develop new approaches to the study of the dynamics of operational risks in sociotechnical systems based on discrete-event modeling of the processes of occurrence of dangerous failures of technical objects. Methods. When constructing a stochastic model, technical objects are presented as material carriers of emerging and developing degradation changes caused by a certain set of sources of degradation processes that generate a corresponding set of failure modes. Results and discussion. A general model of operational risks has been built, based on the representation of the generalized operating time by an integral functional from the main operational factors and taking into account sets of sources of degradation processes. Analytical expressions are obtained to describe the dynamics of dangerous failures of technical objects and to determine the distribution function of dangerous failures, considering the values of the operating time functional and using three-parameter Weibull distributions. Conclusions. The development of methods for modeling multicomponent risks generated by dangerous failures of technical objects seems to be a promising direction for improving the information and analytical support of risk-based management in specialized systems aimed at reducing socio-economic losses caused by failures of technical objects and various equipment due to minimizing the flow of dangerous incidents generated by the main sources of failures. The proposed model of operational risks can be used in safety systems in solving a number of problems to determine various parameters of reliability and safety of operation of technical objects, as well as in predicting the expected socio-economic damage based on assessing the impact of operational factors on the generalized operating time and changing reliability parameters technical objects. Keywords: reliability and safety indicators, operation of technical objects, set of failure modes, three-parameter Weibull distribution.