АГРОКЛИМАТИЧЕСКИЕ РАЙОНЫ И УРОЖАЙНОСТЬ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННЫХ КУЛЬТУР В ИЗМЕНЯЮЩИХСЯ УСЛОВИЯХ РЕГИОНАЛЬНОГО КЛИМАТА

Abstract

Today there is enough scientific research to prove the impact of climate change on agriculture. However, there is no conclusive conclusion as to what is in store for agriculture, its potential will increase or decrease. Significant consequences of the impact of climate change are likely to manifest themselves at the regional level, and this requires additional research for further adaptation of agriculture in the corresponding territory. The aim of the study is to assess changes in agro-climatic indicators at the regional level. The subject is the Komi Republic, located in the extreme northeast of the European part of the country. The chosen research methodology based on statistical processing of agro-climatic indicators for ten meteorological stations in the region for 1960-2018 and economic indicators of productivity and gross harvest of agricultural crops for 1913-2018 due to the large amount of data. Paired regression analysis used accurately interpret the results. The obtained mathematical models evaluated according to the Pearson coefficient, Student’s t-criterion, determination coefficient, F – Fisher’s criterion, so that the results of the study were reliable. For some regions, the consequences of climate change may turn out to be negative in the form of a decrease in food supply, for others - positive, due to an increase in the duration of the growing season and, accordingly, an increase in the potential productivity of agricultural crops. The relevance of the study is because these positive consequences will be especially characteristic for the northern territories. As a result, it revealed that in four agro-climatic regions of the Komi Republic, there were insignificant climatic changes for agriculture over a sixty-year period. An analysis of the yield of vegetables in open ground showed that it increased from 36 to 314 tons per hectare, and the gross yield of the main agricultural crop - potatoes - decreased almost 3 times, but the main reason is the reduction in acreage, and not climate change. However, the trend line for potato yields in the region as a whole shows an upward trend over a 100-year period. The performed paired regression analysis between the selected agro-climatic indicators and the yield of agricultural crops of the republic revealed an average direct relationship only between the yield of vegetables and the duration of the growing season, and the sum of average daily temperatures. Consequently, it is currently impossible to assert that the ongoing climatic changes have a significant impact on agriculture in the Komi Republic