ОЦЕНКА ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИ ОБУСЛОВЛЕННОЙ УРОЖАЙНОСТИ ЯРОВОЙ ПШЕНИЦЫ В ЗЕМЛЕДЕЛЬЧЕСКОЙ ЗОНЕ РОССИИ

Abstract

Agroclimatic resources in the main agricultural regions of Russia are changing at a substantial pace. The authors analyze the impact of these changes on the productivity of spring wheat with the technological trend excluded. This climate-based productivity was calculated via the Climate-Soil-Yield (CSY) simulation system with use of meteorological data from 315 observation points in the Roshydromet network for the period from 1976 to 2015. Provided evidence indicates the adequacy of this productivity modeling in the CSY system over a vast territory of the agricultural zone of Russia. Estimates of trends in agroclimatic indicators and climate-based productivity in the main grain-producing regions over the past four decades have been obtained. It is demonstrated that the average increase in air temperature during the vegetation period of spring wheat in 2006-2015 compared to 1976-1985 was from 1.6 to 2.3 °C in the North-Western regions of the European part (EP) of Russia and from 1.0 to 1.3 °C in the central and southern regions. The deficit of available water resources was especially pronounced in the main areas of spring wheat cultivation in the southern and South-Eastern regions of the EP of Russia. Analysis of trends in climate-based productivity of spring wheat by decades indicates different productivity responses to changes in agroclimatic resources in northern and southern regions of its growth. Over the period from 2006 to 2015, relative to 1961-1990, climate-based productivity decreased by 25-30 % in southern and south-eastern parts of European part of Russia and by 10 % in Eastern Siberia and the Far East. In the Urals and Western Siberia, the decrease of climate-based productivity is minor and ranges from 3 to 5 %. In Russia as a whole, trends towards warming caused a drop in the climate-based productivity of spring wheat by approximately 12 % from 1976 to 2015, i. e. the rate of its decline amounted to ~3 % per decade.