Mitigation pathways towards climate change: Modelling the impact of climatological factors on wheat production in top six regions of China

Abstract

Northern and Southern regions are the two major wheat production belts of China. Agro–climatic resources have changed significantly in recent years, threatening staple food production in these regions. As a result, it is critical to investigate the long–term effect of climate change and agri–inputs on wheat production in China's top six wheat producing provinces (Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Hubei) from 1995 to 2020. The estimated long-run results from the FGLS, DOLS, and D–K estimators revealed that climatic factors, specifically temperature, had a negative impact on wheat production, while precipitation had a positive impact. The findings also revealed that agrochemical inputs, such as fertilizer, increases wheat production, whereas pesticide use decreases wheat production significantly. The results from the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test showed a bidirectional causality between rainfall, fertilizer use, and cultivated area with wheat production, while a unidirectional causality association is running from labor force to wheat production. The current study provides several critical policy recommendations for China's sustainable food production through green agricultural practices and robust climate mitigation strategies.