실질유가와 실질실효환율의 불확실성이 한국 신재생에너지 산업의 품목별 실질수출에 미치는 비대칭적 영향

Abstract

This study analyzes the asymmetric long and short-run effects of real oil price (ROP) and real effective exchange rate (REER) uncertainties on real exports (RX) by items in the Korean new renewable energy (NRE) industry. In this study, the heterogeneous impact on the export size of uncertainty variables from January 2000 to December 2022 are examined using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and quantile regressions (QR) methods. The estimation results of the NARDL model showed that the energy storage system (ESS) was most affected by uncertainty variables in both the short- and long-run, followed by fuel cells, oceans, smart meters, and solar and wind power. Meanwhile, the results of the NARDL asymmetry analysis showed that uncertainty variables in both the short- and long-run had the greatest asymmetric effect on fuel cells and smart meters. Additionally, the QR empirical results according to the RX size show that increasing the ROP, decreasing the REER, and increasing the REER volatility have a significant impact on the small RX size. However, decreasing the ROP and REER have a significant impact on the large RX size. Policy authorities should apply trade and exchange rate policies in an optimal combination to reduce the impact of ROP volatility on the RX in the NRE sector while considering REER volatility. Additionally, exporters in the NRE industry should seek to improve quality competitiveness through high-tech development and hedge strategies using internal and external management techniques to minimize the impact of price volatility on the RX of NRE Industry.